A stock market buy signal with a recession impending? Huh?
and plenty of black swans just over the horizon ...
NOTHING IN THIS POST SHOULD BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. THIS IS FINANCIAL RESEARCH. INVEST AT YOUR OWN RISK.
The 2-10 Treasury yield curve is popular on Wall Street now as a recession onset indicator. When the difference between the 2-year rate and the 10-year rate crosses above the zero line from below the recession is underway or imminent. The last time it first reached its current negative value of -0.64 was in December 1978; and the next recession did not begin until January 1980, over a year later. The S&P 500 rallied almost 15% during that period.
The legendary Coppock curve sent an unmistakable buy signal in April.
On a longer time frame graph you can almost see that the Coppock curve sent a buy signal in June 1978 as well. You could see it better if it were a bigger graph.
So it may be that all the money the Fed pumped into the economy still has some momentum and needs a place to go. A lot of attention has been given to the precipitous decline of M2, but no one has been talking about the increase in M2 velocity, which has been picking up.
So a rally of half a year or more is possible. Six months would take us through the end of October.
As I showed in “Major long-term buy signal upcoming?” the Coppock Curve has a very respectable track record in forecasting price gains over the past 73 years.
Whether one cost-averages in or waits for a buying opportunity, maintaining fairly tight stops is a good idea, as there are many black swans waiting to fly into the scene.
As the market is a little toppy, the next trough will likely fall in a month or two.
Or …
It’s possible this signal may be a false positive, like the one in January 2002, after which the market went up 5% for a month and then proceeded to fall 27% to a bottom in February 2003 which was confirmed by a second Coppock buy signal in April 2003. The market rose until the global financial crisis stopped it.
Speaking of black swans, the one that seems most likely to fly in from over the horizon is the Neocon response to losing, i.e., not “winning,” in Ukraine. What will the Neocons do when the Ukrainian military is defeated in eastern Ukraine and the Russians tell the stragglers in western Ukraine to lay down their arms and give up on joining NATO — or else?
Will NATO start sending missiles into the Donbas or Russia itself? NATO was willing to sacrifice every Ukrainian to break up Russia and make it a vassal state. NATO will have failed.
The Russian military doctrine is clear: an attack on the heartland is considered an existential threat and will be dealt with, in all likelihood, disproportionately.
That’s the nuclear scenario.
If NATO does back down, their national governments will have to deal with the real problem, excessive debt and an inability to fund domestic obligations — and populations very short-tempered with the bullshit that they have been fed through the pandemic and the Ukraine war.
They will have to do something, once the war winds down. There is a world revolution against corrupt elites in the offing, and the elites are intent on global domination.
My estimation is that the Neocons — which includes the WEF Plutocrats pushing for their Great Reset — believe they have one chance in history to achieve world domination by destroying the major economies, sickening and killing their populations, and stuffing every citizen into the straitjacket of a CBDC/SCS.
Having achieved their actual objectives for the pandemic and the Ukraine war — creating chaos, and weakening the EU, US, RU, and China — they will now concentrate on imposing the CBDC/SCS straitjacket. China already has it, and Russia, strangely, seems to be going that way too.
Military activities will switch to destabilizing Russia from the south and disrupting Russian oil shipments by sea to China.
(Recall that the Communists Chairman Xi and Klaus Schwab started off as allies in the Great Reset, I believe, before the Western Neocons and Plutocrats decided to double-cross the CCP. China is heavily dependent on the US, as I showed in “The US dollar ain’t dead.” The Plutocrats would like to keep them as one of the second-tier manufacturing countries. They’re now concentrating on beefing up American high-tech manufacturing. The globalists trust that Xi and the CCP will have no choice but to accept their terms. See “Escalation inevitable?” for details.)
The Neocons are not brave people. Most of them have no military service. They are intellectuals who feel themselves above manual labor. They prefer to sit behind desks and bully people using money, the favorite tool of fascists; or scramble their brains using propaganda via their captive media, or trick them into poisoning themselves with fake vaccines. I refer you again to Spartacus’s proof it wasn’t a lab leak, it was intentional. This summarizes my hypothesis.
The globalists have successfully imposed a CBDC with elements of SCS on Nigeria. The way they did it was to retire the currency and require people to spend the CBDC given to them or starve.
When the next pandemic is declared, federal benefits may be tied to accepting whatever toxic slurry Big Pharma pushes on the people. You’ll probably need to have a vaccine passport too. …
Unless you’ve got a really strong state or provincial government that passes laws saying, “No way.” The feds will punish this by withholding funds.
We don’t know what other high-tech tricks the globalists may have up their sleeves. The health authorities won’t even do autopsies on the “vaccine” deaths to find out what is killing people. The insurance industry data leaves no doubt that a wave of deaths followed the mass mRNA injections in 2021. There was also a wave of declared disabilities recorded by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
It is said that revolutions only succeed when the police and military join the people in opposing the tyrants. Support your police.
A lot of speculation here but it sure looks like some rough sledding ahead.
Have a blessed day! Get right with the Lord!
I asked GPT-4 to write a prophecy for America in the style of Isiaih:
Here's a prophecy for you:
Hear ye, oh America, the words of the Lord,
For He has seen your ways and is not ignored,
Your greed and pride have led you astray,
And now you must face the reckoning day.
The Lord has spoken and this is His will,
That you turn from your ways and seek Him still,
For if you continue on this path of sin,
Your downfall will come and your end begin.
But if you repent and turn back to Him,
He will forgive and cleanse you within,
And bless your land with peace and grace,
And restore to you your rightful place.
So choose this day whom you will serve,
The Lord of all or the ways of the world,
For the time is short and the hour is near,
When all will be revealed and made clear.
Is there anything else I can help you with?