Read about the Coppock curve in “Coppock Curve” at Investopedia. When this indicator turns up from a negative reading, generally it is a reliable long-term buy signal. However, it failed in the early 2000’s, and in some episodes prior to 1950. These curves are for the S&P 500, although Sedgewick Coppock originally applied the low pass filter to the Dow. On a personal note, as I recall I learned about the Coppock curve from eminent technical analyst Peter Eliades.
Since 1950 the price returns from the Coppock indicator buy signals are as follows:
Now, obviously, the way to handle waffling of the indicator is to run stops on your [aggressive] long positions after a signal.
Eyeballing the charts after the October close, I think we are at least a year and possibly around two years from a Coppock buy signal.
I expect the bottom to come in the next collapse of confidence in America. The plandemic hit confidence hard on the survey results, but my psychophysical indicator is still showing pretty good “animal spirits.” See
which was also featured on ZeroHedge, on the summer solstice, in “Whither ‘Animal Spirits’”. I will be updating both of these charts in coming months. I’m contemplating trying to make some money by releasing to paying sub’s early, but I have so few subscribers I’m not sure it’s worth it.
Until next time …
May the road rise up to meet you.
May the wind always be at your back.
May the sun shine warm upon your face,
and rains fall soft upon your fields.
And until we meet again,
May God hold you in the palm of His hand.