On the need for a new anti-war movement
On the need for a new anti-war movement
in the US and Europe
This essay will argue that a new anti-war movement is urgently needed in the US and Europe to prevent a catastrophic escalation of violence that could lead to a nuclear war. It will examine the role of NATO in provoking the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the danger of further sanctions and military interventions, and the potential consequences of a nuclear exchange between the two sides.
According to the Minsk agreements signed in 2014 and 2015, both sides of the conflict agreed to cease fire, withdraw heavy weapons, grant autonomy to Donbas, the eastern ethnically Russian provinces of Ukraine, and hold local elections under Ukrainian law. However, NATO-backed Ukrainian forces continued to shell and attack the separatist-held areas, killing civilians and violating the ceasefire. NATO also provided military aid and training to Ukraine, despite Russia's warnings that this would escalate the situation. As a result, Russia felt threatened by NATO's expansion and intervention in its sphere of influence and decided to intervene militarily in Crimea and Donbas to protect its interests and security.
Ukraine and Russia have a long and complex history that dates back to the medieval state of Kievan Rus’, which was the birthplace of both nations. Ukraine was a part of the Russian Empire from the late 18th century until 1917 when it declared its independence after the Russian Revolution. Ukraine then became a Soviet republic in 1922, along with Russia and other former Russian territories. Ukraine remained under Soviet rule until 1991 when it declared its independence again after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Since then, Ukraine has struggled to balance its relations with Russia and the West, facing pressure and interference from Moscow on various issues, such as its territorial integrity, political orientation, and economic integration; as well as from the West, especially surrounding the rebellion on the Maidan in 2014 that was in part stirred up by Western agents. The most recent conflict between Ukraine and Russia began in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea and supported ethnically-Russian separatist forces in eastern Ukraine who were being attacked by the Kyiv-based Ukrainian government in violation of the Minsk agreements. In 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, sparking a major crisis in Europe and the world.
There is a danger of escalation if Russia feels its existence is threatened by economic sanctions and military defeat in Ukraine. Already facing demographic challenges, the economic sanctions imposed by the West
have hurt the Russian economy. Since 2014, the US and EU have imposed several rounds of sanctions on Russia, targeting its energy, finance, defense, and other sectors. These sanctions have caused significant damage to Russia's economy, reducing its GDP, foreign reserves, trade, and investment.
In response, Russia has imposed counter-sanctions on Western goods, increased its ties with China and other allies, and developed its own domestic industries. However, sanctions have also increased Russia's resentment and defiance of the West, making it more likely to resort to military force to defend its interests. Moreover, if Russia faces a military defeat in Ukraine, it could invoke its nuclear doctrine, which allows it to use nuclear weapons first in case of an existential threat or a conventional attack that exceeds its capacity to respond.
A nuclear war between NATO and Russia would be devastating for both sides and for the world. According to the latest estimates, Russia has about 6,375 nuclear warheads, while NATO has about 3,750 (mostly US). If these weapons were used against each other's military bases, cities, industrial centers, and infrastructure, they would cause millions of deaths, injuries, radiation sicknesses, fires, blast damage, and EMP effects. They would also create massive amounts of radioactive fallout that would spread over large areas of Europe, Asia, North America, and beyond. Furthermore, a nuclear war could trigger a nuclear winter that would lower global temperatures, reduce sunlight, disrupt agriculture, and cause famine and disease for billions of people. It would also destabilize international relations, increase terrorism, undermine human rights, and threaten civilization as we know it.
This essay has argued that a new anti-war movement is urgently needed in the US and Europe to prevent a catastrophic escalation of violence that could lead to a nuclear war. It has shown that NATO provoked the Russian invasion of Ukraine by lying about adherence to the Minsk agreements; that further sanctions and military interventions could trigger a nuclear response from Russia; and that a nuclear exchange between the two sides would cause unimaginable destruction for both sides and for the world. Therefore, a new anti-war movement should demand an end to sanctions on Russia; a withdrawal of NATO troops from Eastern Europe; a peaceful resolution of the conflict in Ukraine based on dialogue and respect for sovereignty and self-determination as per the Minsk agreements; a reduction of nuclear arsenals; and a revival of arms control treaties.
Without strong leadership toward peace, the chance of a “soft landing” for the Ukraine war doesn’t seem great. Russia feels it is facing an existential threat to its existence. No animal fights harder for survival than one attacked on its home turf. The time has come for a new international peace movement.