Is gold saying inflation or deflation?
some charts from macrotrends.com
Like the physicists, I am a firm believer in eyeballing significant charts. Does this chart of the real gold price look like gold is about to take off in real terms?
Here is the nominal chart.
Do T-bills have a positive real yield over the long term? Here is a chart of the year-over-year CPI inflation rate (red) and the 1-year T-bill rate (blue). The answer is yes, most of the time, but not during ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) periods. If the Fed has learned anything from the Japanese and EU experiences, they will not go there again. Probably, they won’t be able to anyway due to wartime (including trade war) inflationary pressures. We may have reached a long-term bottom for interest rates.
Pray for peace! The lunatics are running the asylum.