Another proof that lockdowns kill

based on UK data in the annus horribilis of 2020

Review of previous work

In a previous post, “A proof that lockdowns kill,” I showed that a significant portion of excess deaths in 2020 could be attributed to lockdowns, broadly construed as lockdowns plus all other inhumane and traumatizing non-pharmaceutical interventions that were inflicted upon Western populations. These results were reported in the Brownstone Institute article, “Lockdowns Deaths in 2020 Were 42% of Excess Deaths.”

The year 2020 is a good one for studying lockdowns effects. Let us posit that there are three major causes of death during the pandemic: Covid, lockdowns, and the “vaccines.” The annus horribilis of 2020 is an attractive year in which to study lockdown deaths because the rollout of the “vaccines” had barely started and produced insignificant numbers of reports of death to the US Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) or the UK’s Yellow Card reporting system.

So this analysis studies lockdown deaths net of Covid deaths as being as close to a “pure play” in lockdown deaths as possible.

Many have blamed China for instigating lockdowns, but it is not plausible that all the Western governments could have adopted such cruel measures — all while chanting in unison, “Build Back Better” — without aforethought. It is my view that the draconian pandemic response was fully a joint effort of leftist Western oligarchic forces represented by the World Economic Forum, and the Chinese Communist Party, to impose the “Great Reset,” i.e., global techno-tyranny, on the West.

In the US, in the chaos of a pandemic during an election year, the count of Covid deaths became top news. From one point of view, the left’s, the higher the number, the better, until the election. And so most experts agree that many deaths were recorded as “Covid deaths” when there was a positive PCR test within some interval of death; these were coded in many cases as “death with Covid” whether Covid proximately caused the death or not.

The resulting confusion has led analysts to focus on excess deaths as a more meaningful metric of the pandemic's overall death toll. Excess deaths are those deaths that exceed the actuarial expectation of deaths in a period. Deaths are usually quite predictable: a certain percentage within an age band die each year and the numbers in the age band are known at the beginning of the year. So considering all age bands the total number of expected deaths in the year can be calculated beforehand. Awareness of excess deaths can occur contemporaneously with the reporting of current deaths.

One of the many red flags of 2020 was that the authorities should have been aware of the excess deaths beyond Covid deaths that their policies were creating; but did not stop what they were doing.

One statistical subtlety needs to be addressed. It is impossible to say whether a Covid death is an excess death or not from the aggregated data. So the most conservative way to handle the data is to assume that all Covid deaths were excess deaths, even though this is not likely true. Thus, the estimates of lockdown deaths below are biased downward.

For the US in 2020 the numbers are as follows, rounded to thousands:

The 2020 excess deaths estimate is from the BMJ. Total CDC recorded Covid deaths in 2020 are from 91-divoc.com. As noted, Covid deaths in 2020 were recorded liberally, including many “with Covid” deaths. Dr. Deborah Birx, on the central Covid committee, estimated that 25% of Covid deaths were probably better attributed to other causes. Therefore in the table below the 352,000 Covid deaths are multiplied by 0.75, yielding 264,000 Covid deaths. Many would say Birx’s estimate of “with Covid” deaths is probably low.

Lockdown deaths climb to almost 200,000, almost half of the excess deaths, under this assumption.

When I solicited comments from top epidemiologist Dr. Harvey Risch on these results, he wrote:

“[…] these mortality estimates are pretty inaccurate.  Ballpark, probably ok, but not much more than that.  Case reporting is highly inexact as well, good only for relative trends, if that.”

Many other public health professionals have commented on the low quality and availability of public health data.

When I asked if there were better data to study, he suggested the UK data.

My analysis follows.

Lockdown deaths in the UK

The UK excess deaths data for England is from the UK’s Office of National Statistics, while the Covid deaths data is from www.gov.uk. In the English case — using the best data available — the estimate is consistent with the US ballpark estimate, but even worse.

Two-thirds of English excess deaths in the annus horribilis of 2020 were attributed to something other than Covid; most likely, the traumatizing and inhumane, indeed fascistic policies put upon a public whipped into a frenzied terror of a coronavirus with an infection fatality rate known by the end of March 2020 to be little different than that of the seasonal flu. This was orchestrated state-of-the-art fifth generation information warfare, as Dr. Robert Malone likes to point out.

Added March 20: Finally it occurred to me to look at Sweden, where there was no lockdown.

With the help of Bing Chat, I looked at lockdown deaths in Sweden in 2020.

Covid deaths were 9400, excess deaths were 7000. If anything there was a pull-forward effect in covid deaths.

Sweden had 0% lockdown deaths (defined as excess deaths > covid deaths). 

Because Sweden didn't lockdown or pursue any of a number of other fascist anti-life non-pharmaceutical interventions! 

Conclusion

A detailed examination of non-Covid deaths in 2020 is beyond the scope of this article. Such an analysis would tell us where the stresses of lockdowns immediately hit most. It is also necessary to note that the effects of trauma, missed appointments, prescriptions not filled, suicides, deaths by drugs or alcohol, loss of businesses, destruction of human relationships, etc., will linger well beyond the year 2020; the toll estimated here is only the first round impact.

Moreover, we can state that, as people are essentially the same everywhere, it is virtually impossible that the lockdowns in China did not cause similar damage. As a percentage of population, estimated lockdown deaths in the US were 0.65%; in the UK, 0.22%, probably reflecting the generally poorer health of Americans than the British.

Taking the average of 0.44% and applying it to China’s official population of 1.4 billion yields 6.1 million, plus or minus a few million, as a ballpark estimate of Chinese lockdown deaths for one year — and their lockdowns went on for almost three years and were far more severe in implementation than Western lockdowns. As there is no reliable data coming out of China, we will never know.

Never again

Never again must the governments anywhere in the world attempt to destroy the dream of freedom in their people’s hearts by locking them down like animals.

The fascist will to power of global elites must be stopped.

It must never be allowed to rise again.

Never again!